Rushewar aikin software ta hanyar ci gaba mai ban mamaki na basirar wucin gadi Ya zama É—aya daga cikin sauye-sauyen kasuwa mafi ban mamaki a cikin 'yan watannin nan. Abin da ya fara a matsayin gyara mai ma'ana a kimantawar fannoni ya rikide, a cewar wasu 'yan kasuwa, zuwa "SaaSpocalypse" na gaske, tare da siyar da martanin sarka kamar manyan gyare-gyaren fasaha.
A cikin 'yan makonni kalilan, sun ƙare ɗaruruwan biliyoyin jarin kasuwa na kamfanonin da suka shafi softwareAyyukan bayanai da tsarin biyan kuɗi suna cikin haɗari. Tsoron cewa AI na iya yin aiki, sarrafa kansa, ko rage farashin ayyukan da waɗannan kamfanonin ke ɗauka a halin yanzu ya haifar da fargaba da ke yaɗuwa a fadin Wall Street da manyan kasuwannin Turai.
A kasuwar hannayen jari ta Amurka, dillalai da dama sun bayyana yanayin da ya kusan firgita da ke kewaye da wannan fanni. 'Yan kasuwa daga kamfanoni kamar Jefferies suna magana a fili game da tallace-tallace masu yawa suna ihun "ka fitar da ni daga nan"tare da abokan ciniki suna rage matsayi ba tare da la'akari da farashi ko muhimman abubuwa ba. Wannan yanayin ba ya takaita ga wasu kamfanoni kaɗan ba: yana shafar... kamfanonin software na gabaɗaya, masu samar da SaaS, kamfanonin bayanai, da ƙungiyoyin ayyukan kamfanoni.
Daga rashin yarda zuwa "tashin hankali" na software a kasuwar hannayen jari
A kasuwar hannayen jari ta Amurka, dillalai da dama sun bayyana yanayin da ya kusan firgita da ke kewaye da wannan fanni. 'Yan kasuwa daga kamfanoni kamar Jefferies suna magana a fili game da tallace-tallace masu yawa suna ihun "ka fitar da ni daga nan"tare da abokan ciniki suna rage matsayi ba tare da la'akari da farashi ko muhimman abubuwa ba. Wannan yanayin ba ya takaita ga wasu kamfanoni kaɗan ba: yana shafar... kamfanonin software na gabaɗaya, masu samar da SaaS, kamfanonin bayanai, da ƙungiyoyin ayyukan kamfanoni.
Fihirisar sassan ta nuna hakan sosai. Fihirisar Manhajar S&P ta Arewacin Amurka ta ragu tsawon shekaru da dama. makonni da dama tare da asara da raguwar wata-wata na kusan kashi 15%matakan da ba a gani ba tun lokacin mafi munin lokutan 2008. Wani takamaiman ma'aunin software da Goldman Sachs ya tattara ya faɗi da kusan kashi 6% a cikin zaman guda ɗaya, mafi munin rana tun bayan babban lamari na ƙarshe na tilasta sayar da kayayyaki saboda rikicin ciniki.
Wannan hukunci bai faru a cikin wani yanayi na rashin tabbas ba. Tun daga lokacin kaka da ta gabata, Kamfanin S&P 500 Software ya tara asarar kusan kashi 26%.Duk da cewa S&P 500 mai faɗi kusan ba shi da faɗi ko ma ya fi ɗan girma, bambancin yana ƙarfafa jin cewa kasuwa tana da faɗi. ya zaɓi software a matsayin babban "masu ɓoye" don haɓakar AI.
Ana kuma jin tasirin hakan a fannoni daban-daban na saka hannun jari. Asusun ETF na iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ya ga raguwa a jere. har zuwa kwanaki shida a jere na raguwaTarin asara wanda ke haifar da mafi munin yanayi na wata-wata tun bayan rikicin kuÉ—i. Faduwar sa, wacce ta wuce kashi 15% cikin 'yan makonni kaÉ—an, ta zama alama ta rashin yarda da tsarin kasuwancin software na gargajiya.
Anthropic a cikin Haske: walƙiyar da ke kunna kasuwa
A cikin wannan zangon tallace-tallace, rawar da Generative wucin gadi hankali Mabuɗin abu ne. Abin da ya fi bayyana shi ne Anthropic, ɗaya daga cikin manyan kamfanonin AI da ke samun goyon bayan manyan kamfanoni kamar Amazon da AlphabetSanarwar da suka yi na sabbin kayan aiki da aka yi niyya kai tsaye ga ayyukan ƙwararru ya zama abin ƙarfafa tsoro da ya daɗe yana ci gaba da wanzuwa.
Kamfanin ya gabatar da kayan haɗi ga wakilin Claude da nufin sassan shari'a da ayyukan gudanarwa masu rikitarwaWannan ya haɗa da duba kwangila, kula da yarjejeniyar sirri, bin ƙa'idodi, da kuma shirya rahotannin doka, da sauran ayyuka. A wata ma'anar, ainihin irin hidimar da suka shafe shekaru suna bayarwa. Suna cajin kuɗin mafita na software da aka biya da kuma bayanan ƙwararru.
Amsar ta kasance nan take. Cikin sa'o'i kaɗan, suka ɓace. darajar kasuwar hannayen jari ta ɗaruruwan biliyoyin Yuro kamfanonin software da bayanai. Kamfanonin da ke da alaƙa da duniyar shari'a da ta ƙwararru kamar Thomson Reuters, CS Disco ko LegalZoom sun yi rijistar raguwar lambobi biyu a cikin kwana ɗaya, tare da raguwar da ta kama daga 12% zuwa 20%.
Amma girgizar ta wuce gona da iri a fannin shari'a. Kamfanin Exchange na London, tare da mahimman bayanai na kuÉ—i da kasuwanci na nazariHannun jarinsa ya faÉ—i da kusan kashi 13% a cikin zaman guda É—aya. Sauran kamfanonin bayanai da abun ciki na kamfanoni sun fuskanci irin wannan matsala, a cikin yanayin da duk wani samfurin da ya dogara sosai akan sayar da bayanai da software na musamman ana kallonsa ta atomatik da shakku.
Masu sharhi daga kamfanoni kamar Swissquote da XTB sun yarda cewa sanarwar Anthropic Bai gano wani sabon abu game da AI baAmma fahimtar kasuwa ta canza: waÉ—annan 'yan wasan ba a sake ganin su a matsayin masu samar da samfura kawai ba, a'a, a matsayin manyan 'yan wasa. masu fafatawa kai tsaye a cikin aikace-aikace da hanyoyin aiki inda manyan kamfanonin software ke samun kuÉ—i a yau.
Turai na kamuwa da cuta: bayanai, fasahar shari'a da software na kasuwanci suna fuskantar matsin lamba
Damuwar ba ta tsaya a ɗayan gefen Tekun Atlantika ba. Kasuwannin hannayen jari na Turai sun fara fuskantar koma baya kuma sun mayar da martani da raguwar farashi mai yawa a cikin kamfanonin bayanai, ƙwararrun masu buga littattafai, da masu haɓaka software na kasuwanciCibiyar ta kasance a Burtaniya, Netherlands da Jamus, inda aka lissafa wasu daga cikin ƙungiyoyin da suka fi fuskantar matsalar fasahar zamani a kamfanoni.
A Landan, an kafa sunayen kamar haka RELX, Experian, Sage ko LSEG da kanta Sun yi rijistar raguwar tsakanin kashi 7% zuwa 14% a zaman da aka nuna rashin daidaito. A Amsterdam, Kowa ya KluwerWani babban kamfani a fannin software da bayanai ga ƙwararru ya ga raguwar kusan kashi 13%. Duk waɗannan kamfanoni suna da tsari iri ɗaya: tsarin kasuwanci bisa ga biyan kuɗi, tallace-tallacen lasisi, da kuma amfani da manyan rumbun adana bayanai.
Kasuwa tana fargabar cewa isowar mataimaka masu hankali waɗanda za su iya karantawa, taƙaitawa, da kuma samar da takardu, rahotanni, ko nazari a kan lokaci zai yi mummunan tasiri. rage riba ko ma adadin masu amfani waɗanda ke buƙatar shiga kai tsaye zuwa waɗannan dandamaliIdan wakilin AI guda ɗaya zai iya yin ayyuka da a da ake buƙatar lasisi da yawa ga kowane ma'aikaci a cikin mintuna, tsarin "ƙarin masu amfani, ƙarin kuɗi" na gargajiya zai shiga cikin tambaya.
A ɗayan gefen Rhine, Jamusawa sun yi SAP ya zama nazarin shari'a a cikin DAXHannun jarin ta ya faɗi da fiye da kashi 20% tun farkon shekarar, inda ya kai matsayi mafi ƙanƙanta a cikin kimanin shekara ɗaya da rabi, duk da cewa alkaluman ayyukanta sun kasance masu ƙarfi. Darajar kasuwarta ta ragu da biliyoyin daloli, a tsakanin gyare-gyaren da aka samu a kamfanonin software a Turai da Amurka.
A baya, akwai fargabar cewa Tsarin AI na zamani zai iya maye gurbin wasu software na gudanar da kasuwanci na gargajiyamusamman a cikin sassan gajimare da SaaS. Tsawon shekaru, SAP ta bunƙasa wajen ƙaura da abokan cinikinta zuwa ga tsarin biyan kuɗi da kuma tsarin samun kuɗi mai maimaitawa; a yau, kasuwa tana mamakin ko wakilai masu hankali da dandamali masu sauƙi za su iya sarrafa ayyuka da yawa na yau da kullun waɗanda a da suke buƙatar kayayyaki da lasisi da yawa.
Manyan manhajoji: tsakanin hukunci da dama
Gyaran bai kuma rage wa manyan 'yan wasa a fannin Wall Street rai ba. Microsoft, Oracle, ServiceNow, Adobe, Salesforce ko Palantir Sun ga farashinsu ya faɗi sosai daga mafi girman darajar da aka samu a ƙarshen 2025. A wasu lokuta, raguwar ta kai kusan ko fiye da kashi 40% daga kololuwar zagayowar bull.
A cikin hali na MicrosoftDuk da samun sakamako mai kyau, an mayar da hankali kan raguwar ci gaban gajimare da kuma babban ƙoƙarin saka hannun jari a fannin AIHannun jarin sa ya ragu da kusan kashi 10% cikin 'yan kwanaki kalilan, inda ya daidaita zaman tattaunawa da dama marasa kyau kuma a ƙarshe ya sami mafi munin watan da ya gabata cikin sama da shekaru goma. Duk da haka, wasu manajojin asusun sun yi amfani da wannan koma-baya don ƙara matsayinsu, suna da yakinin cewa kamfanin zai tabbatar da kansa a matsayin ɗaya daga cikin manyan waɗanda suka yi nasara a juyin juya halin AI.
Sauran 'yan wasan kwaikwayo, kamar Oracle ko ServiceNowSu ma ba a keɓe su ba. Kasuwa tana hukunta su duka saboda gasa daga sabbin hanyoyin magance matsalar AI da kuma saboda matsalolin kuɗi da kuma ƙarfinsu na musammanA cikin wannan yanayi, masu sharhi sun fara ɗaukar mataki: kamfanoni kamar Piper Sandler sun rage shawarwarinsu ga kamfanoni kamar Adobe, Freshworks, da Vertex, suna gargadin cewa "matse wurin zama" da sarrafa lambar ta atomatik ta hanyar AI na iya haifar da koma baya ga aikin. iyakance ninki da masu zuba jari ke son biya.
Ba duk labaran ba ne marasa kyau. Palantir, wanda ke da alaƙa da ci gaba da nazari da kuma amfani da AIKamfanin ya samu karuwar kudaden shiga fiye da yadda ake tsammani, inda aka samu karuwar kusan kashi 70% a kowace shekara a wasu sassan. Hannun jarinsa sun yi ta mayar da martani da kusan kashi 7% a wasu lokutan, wanda hakan ke nuna cewa kasuwa na shirye ta ba shi lada. ga waɗancan samfuran kasuwanci waɗanda suka riga sun sami kuɗi mai yawa ta hanyar AI.
Duk da haka, sakamakon kwata-kwata ya nuna gibi bayyananne: kimanin Kashi biyu bisa uku na kamfanonin software a cikin S&P 500 sun sami nasarar doke tsammanin samun kudin shigaWannan ya kwatanta da sama da kashi 80% na dukkan fannin fasaha. Ribar da ake samu a yanzu, a yanzu, ba ta isa ta kawar da shakku game da yuwuwar ci gabanta na dogon lokaci a cikin duniyar da ke cike da samfuran AI.
Manuniya, ETFs da nazarin fasaha: wani yanki da aka sayar da shi fiye da kima
Daga mahangar fasaha, alamu da yawa suna nuna matakin sayar da kaya fiye da kima a fannin softwareMatsakaicin ribar da kamfanoni ke samu a fannin ya kai mafi ƙanƙanta a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. A wasu manyan kamfanoni, rabon farashi da riba ya faɗi zuwa kusan sau 23 da aka kiyasta, lokacin da ba da daɗewa ba ake biyan ƙarin kuɗaɗen shiga.
Ma'aunin ƙarfin dangantaka na kwanaki 14 (RSI) na wasu daga cikin waɗannan hannun jari, gami da wasu manyan kamfanoni kamar Microsoft, yana shiga yankunan da aka sayar da su fiye da kimaWannan yana nuna cewa, aƙalla a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, farfadowar fasaha na iya tasowa. Masu tsara dabarun a kamfanoni kamar BTIG sun yi imanin cewa ɓangaren "mai yiwuwa an hukunta shi sosai har ya cancanci farfadowa," kodayake suna gargaɗin cewa Sake gina harsashin aminci mai ƙarfi zai ɗauki lokaci..
Yanayin kasuwa da kansu yana ƙara mai ga wutar. Ƙananan riba—matsayi marasa kyau—a cikin kamfanonin software na tsakiya da manyan kamfanoni sun ƙaru sosai a cikin 'yan watannin nan, musamman a kamfanonin tsaro na yanar gizo da SaaSA lokaci guda, alamu da dama na canjin yanayi, kamar VIX, sun ƙaru, suna nuna tashin hankali a cikin yanayi inda aka tilasta wa masu zuba jari masu amfani da damar rage haɗari cikin sauri.
A lokaci guda kuma, wasu manajojin hannun jari da basussuka masu zaman kansu, musamman a Turai, sun fara duba cikakken fayil ɗin lamuni da riƙon software ɗin suKamfanonin bayar da kuɗi kai tsaye da asusun bashi sun rage yawan masu sha'awar wannan fanni, a wasu lokutan da rabi, kuma sun ba da umarnin yin bincike na musamman don gano waɗanne kamfanoni ne suka fi fuskantar matsalar AI.
A ƙarshe, zanen yana da wani abu fannin a zahiri mai arha amma har yanzu yana ƙarƙashin rashin tabbasGa masu zuba jari da ke neman amfani na dogon lokaci, wannan haɗin zai iya bayar da damar shiga mai kyau, amma kuma yana buƙatar hanya madaidaiciya: bai isa a sake siyan "software" gaba ɗaya ba; mabuɗin shine a bambance wanda ke da dabarun AI mai inganci da kuma wanda zai iya faɗuwa a baya.
AI a matsayin mai aiwatarwa ko azaman layin ceto don software?
Bayan hayaniya ta ɗan gajeren lokaci, abin da ke cikin haɗari shine sake kimantawa ta asali game da rawar da software ke takawa a cikin sabon tsarin dijitalA kullum, masu sharhi suna jayayya cewa ƙirƙirar ƙima yana canzawa daga matakin aikace-aikacen - inda manyan kamfanonin software na gargajiya suka mamaye - zuwa ga kayayyakin more rayuwa na AI, cibiyoyin bayanai, da dandamali waɗanda ke tsara samfura da bayanai.
A cikin wannan sabon tsarin, masu samar da kayayyaki na kwakwalwan kwamfuta, kayan aiki don cibiyoyin bayanaiManyan ayyuka na girgije da dandamali waɗanda ke iya aiki a matsayin "tsarin aiki" na AI suna daga cikin abubuwan da ake bayarwa. Yawancin waɗannan kamfanoni suna ba da rahoton karuwar littattafan oda da kuma karuwar damar samun kuɗi, duk da cewa software mai tsabta yana fuskantar babban canji. A ƙarshe, kasuwa... Ana sake tsara shi don amfanin waɗanda ke kula da muhimman kayayyakin more rayuwa da bayanai..
Ga kamfanonin software na kasuwanci da SaaS, tambayar ita ce ko suna da ikon haɗa AI cikin samfuran su ta hanyoyin da za su ƙarfafa, maimakon lalata tsarin kasuwancin su, maimakon lalata su.Wasu, kamar SAP, sun yanke shawarar sanya AI a tsakiyar dabarunsu, suna haɗa ayyuka masu hankali cikin nau'ikan aikace-aikacen girgije iri-iri kuma suna nuna cewa babban ɓangare na sabbin kwangilolin sun riga sun haɗa da lasisin da ke da alaƙa da ikon AI.
Labarin hukuma a bayyane yake: su sanya kansu a matsayin Masu haɓaka AI a cikin ayyukan yau da kullun na kamfanonitaimakawa wajen sarrafa ayyuka ta atomatik, rage kurakurai, da kuma ƙara yawan aiki, maimakon a mayar da su ta hanyar mafita na waje. A lokaci guda, da yawa daga cikin waɗannan kamfanoni sun ƙaddamar da shirye-shiryen sake sayen hannun jari na Yuro biliyan da yawa, tare da manufar biyu don tallafawa farashi da kuma aika saƙon amincewa ga kasuwa.
Duk da haka, tambaya mai mahimmanci ta rage: har zuwa wane mataki wakilai da mataimakan AI masu ƙarfi za su iya kauce wa ko maye gurbin samfuran lasisi na gargajiyaMasu zuba jari da yawa suna jin tsoron cewa, ko da tare da haɗin fasaha mara aibi, ƙarfin farashin software na gargajiya zai lalace, wanda ke tilasta wa kamfanoni su sake tunani gaba ɗaya game da tsarin samun kuɗin shiga.
Zaɓin tiyata da kuma rashin tabbas game da hasashen shekaru masu zuwa
Hangen nesa na gama gari yana haɗuwa tsakanin manajojin kadarori da bankunan saka hannun jari: Matakin sayayya ta fasaha ba tare da la'akari da addini ba ya ƙarewaFaduwar hannun jarin software sakamakon AI ana fassara ta a matsayin wani ɓangare na sake daidaita ƙima a fannoni masu tasowa, bayan shekaru da yawa na buƙatar ninki mai yawa. Bambancin yanzu shine cewa rushewar ba ta da tushe: an riga an ji ta kai tsaye a cikin samfura, hanyoyin aiki, da kuma ribar.
Masana daga kamfanoni kamar LPL Financial, JP Morgan, da Edward Jones sun jaddada cewa AI na iya zama babbar hanyar da za a iya amfani da ita wajen cimma burin AI. Ƙarar gasa tana haifar da matsin lamba ga farashi kuma tana sa ya yi wahala a ci gaba da samun fa'idodi masu ɗorewa a gasa.A wannan mahallin, rarraba kimantawa mai adalci ya zama mafi rikitarwa: kewayon hanyoyin ci gaba da za a iya samu ga kamfanoni da yawa ya faɗaɗa, kuma tare da shi gibin da ke tsakanin waɗanda za su iya cin nasara da waɗanda suka sha kaye.
Tarihin manyan juyin juya halin fasaha ya nuna cewa Daidaita farashin kasuwar hannayen jari yana buƙatar, da farko, ƙarin haske game da ribar da za a samu a nan gaba.A fannin software, tambayar tana da ɓangarori biyu: a gefe guda, ta yaya buƙatar mafita za ta bunƙasa a cikin yanayi inda AI ke ƙara sarrafa ayyuka ta atomatik; a gefe guda kuma, wane ɓangare na wannan sarrafa kansa za su kama kansu da kuma wane ɓangare za su bari a hannun sabbin 'yan wasa, daga manyan kamfanoni zuwa manyan dandamali na ababen more rayuwa.
A halin yanzu, kasuwa tana juyawa tsakanin ra'ayin da ya fi rashin bege - na waÉ—anda ke ganin software na gargajiya a matsayin sabuwar masana'antar "tsohuwar" masana'antu da za ta ruguje ta hanyar sabuwar fasahar zamani- da kuma matsayin waÉ—anda suka yi imanin cewa hukuncin da ake É—auka a yanzu shine barin kamfanoni su sami takaddun ma'auni masu kyau, masu aminci ga abokan ciniki da kuma ainihin damar daidaitawa a farashi mai kyau.
A wannan yanayin, Turai tana taka muhimmiyar rawa kamar yadda ma'aunin zafi na ra'ayin duniya game da software na kasuwanciLamura kamar SAP, RELX, Wolters Kluwer, Sage, ko masu gudanar da manyan kayayyakin more rayuwa na bayanai da kansu suna aiki a matsayin abin nuni don auna girman yadda masu zuba jari ke son ci gaba da yin fare akan samfuran biyan kuÉ—i da lasisi a cikin duniyar da AI, ko da mafi kyau ko mara kyau, ta É—auki matsayi na tsakiya.
Abin da ke faruwa a kasuwar hannayen jari tare da Hannun jarin software da basirar wucin gadi ta shafa A zahiri, ba a iyakance shi ga sauƙaƙan sauyi na yanayin kasuwa ba: yana nuna wani tsari mai zurfi na sake daidaita iko a cikin yanayin dijital, inda ake yanke shawara kan wanda zai kama darajar shekaru goma na fasaha masu zuwa kuma waɗanda za su sake ƙirƙirar kansu cikin sauri don kada a bar su a baya.